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West Pacific/2015/11W/Archive/13
Public advisory TYPHOON NANGKA SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 13 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 07:00 PM JST MON JUL 07 2015 ...NANGKA STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.... SUMMARY OF 07:00 PM JST...10:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N, 158.1E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY HIGH ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NE OF PALIKIR, MICRONESIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 KT...100 MPH...160 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...963 MB...28.43 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 15 KT...16 MPH...25 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 07:00 pm JST, the center of Typhoon Nangka was situated near 11.9N, 158.1E, or about 340 miles (550 kilometers) north-northeast of Palikir, Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 963 millibars (hPa; 28.43 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 15 knots (16 mph, 25 km/h). Additional rapid intensification is expected as Nangka tracks west-northwestward. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST. $$ Forecaster YE Discussion TYPHOON NANGKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 07:00 PM JST SUN JUL 06 2015 Nangka has out of nowhere developed a OW (-1C) eye that is warming again, though larger than I would like, embbed in a W, on if not B cloud tops, while a complete LG ring and a semi-complete B ring has developed. Since the B ring is not fully complete, T5.5/102 knts is its short term ceiling until that happens unless of course, the eye warms to WMG status. Latest estimates from JTWC, SAB, and a special fix from WHFC all yielded a DT of T5.5/102 knts for the above reasons. However, a very interesting debate is sparked. How do you deal with constraints? JTWC enforced constraints the old school way, with a FT of T4.5/77 knts. SAB went with a T5.0/90 knts and broke constraints. WHFC went with T5.0.90 knts as well via a modified constraint due to the fact that the 0832z fix was a special one, but assumed T5.0/90 knts was it's upper possible limit. CIMSS ADT CI values are at T5.3/98 knts, while raw values are T6.2/~120 knts. From the JTWC/SSD, CI ADT values are at 5.4/99.6 knts and raw values are at a mind blogging T6.4/125 knts. This data, even when placing more weight towards subjective estimates, and throwing out raw ADT's, this would easily support an intensity of 90-95 knts. Given the ragged appearance and winds lag behind satellite, a special advisory is only increasing to the winds to 85 knts. The main point of the special is to updated the intensity forecast and everything else, I am too tired to toy with anything else, even though I could since the 6z GFS is rolling out as I write this. INIT 06/1000Z 11.9N 158.1E 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 12.6N, 156.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 13.8N 154.5E 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.9N 152.2E 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 16.1N 150.1E 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 17.8N 147.7W 130 KT 150 MPH ... NEAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS 96H 10/0600Z 20.6N 144.3E 130 KT 150 MPH ... NEAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS 120H 11/0000Z 23.2N 140.9E 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster YE